Blog > What is happening in the Phoenix real estate market right now, and is it a good time to buy or sell a home?
What is happening in the Phoenix real estate market right now, and is it a good time to buy or sell a home?
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September 2026 Phoenix Real Estate Market Update
Forget the Headlines for a Minute. Here’s What I’m Actually Seeing.
If you follow the news about real estate, you might think the housing market is falling apart.
It isn’t.
But I’m also not going to tell you this is a great seller’s market where you can put almost any price on a home and expect it to sell.
That isn’t happening either.
After 14 years in real estate, I’ve learned that statistics are important, but they need context. Numbers tell us what happened. They don’t always tell you what it actually feels like to buy or sell a home today.
So rather than overwhelm you with charts and percentages this month, I want to tell you what I’m actually seeing with buyers and sellers and then use some of the data to see if it backs that up.
For the most part, it does.
Buyers Think It’s 2009. Sellers Think It’s 2021.
I’m exaggerating a little, but this may be the easiest way to describe today’s market.
I talk to buyers who seem to think we’re heading back toward the foreclosure crisis and that if they wait long enough, homes will eventually be available for 30%, 40% or 50% less.
At the same time, I talk to sellers who still expect to name their price and wait for someone to pay it like they could in 2020 and 2021.
Neither one describes today’s market.
We’re somewhere in the middle.
And that gap between what buyers expect and what sellers expect is one of the biggest challenges in the market right now.
What does this mean for you?
Buyers have leverage, but they don’t have unlimited leverage.
Sellers can still get strong results, but they have to compete for the buyer.
That’s probably the simplest description of the September market.
The Market Isn’t Crashing. It’s Moving Slowly.
At the beginning of September, there were about 23,700 active listings across the broader Phoenix-area MLS. After adjusting for changes in the areas covered by the MLS, that’s basically unchanged from last year.
So we’re not suddenly being flooded with homes.
Sales, however, have been slower.
Maricopa County recorded 5,417 closings in August, about 8% fewer than August of last year.
But there’s another number I find more interesting.
Pending listings across the broader market were 4.5% higher than a year ago, and the number of homes under contract increased from July.
Why does that matter?
Closed sales tell us what happened weeks ago. Pending and under-contract homes give us a better idea of what buyers are doing right now.
The rearview mirror looks slow. The windshield looks a little better.
What does this mean for you?
There are still buyers in this market.
I’m seeing it myself.
We recently sold one of our listings at full price while it was still in Coming Soon status, before it officially hit the market.
I have another home coming soon in a 55+ active-adult community. The sign is up and our Coming Soon marketing has started, but the home isn't ready to show yet. I’m already getting calls from agents with buyers asking when they can get inside.
Demand hasn’t disappeared. Buyers have simply become more selective.
Home Prices Aren’t Doing What Many People Think They’re Doing.
I hear some version of this all the time:
"Prices are coming down everywhere."
But are home values actually dropping—or are overpriced homes finally selling for what they were worth in the first place?
The median resale home price in Maricopa County in August was about $450,000.
A year ago?
About $450,000.
Basically flat.
That’s not a booming market.
But it certainly isn’t a housing crash.
So why does it feel like prices are falling?
I think price reductions are confusing a lot of people.
Let’s say a house is realistically worth about $600,000.
The seller lists it for $650,000.
It doesn’t sell.
They reduce it to $635,000. Then $620,000. Four months later it sells for $605,000.
Someone watching the market sees a $45,000 price reduction and thinks:
"Home prices are dropping."
But did that house really lose $45,000 in value?
Probably not.
It may have been worth around $600,000 the entire time.
The asking price came down. That doesn’t necessarily mean the home's market value did.
That’s a very important difference.
Sellers: Pricing Matters Again.
There’s an old real estate industry term called “buying the listing.”
Let’s say you interview three agents.
Two study the comparable sales, your competition and current market conditions and tell you your home is worth around $700,000.
The third tells you:
"I can get $725,000."
Naturally, $725,000 sounds better.
But unless there is data supporting it, that agent hasn’t magically made the house worth another $25,000.
The home gets listed at $725,000. Then comes a price reduction. Then another. Eventually it sells around $700,000—or sometimes less than it could have sold for if it had been positioned correctly from the beginning.
I’ve heard sellers say, “I don’t want to give my house away,” for my entire career.
Realistic pricing isn’t giving your house away.
It’s recognizing what today’s buyer is willing to pay.
What does this mean for you?
The homes I see performing well generally have three things working for them:
Price. Condition. Location.
If you have all three, you're in a strong position.
If one is working against you, price becomes even more important.
And remember, much of the Southeast Valley was built by major homebuilders. There may be several homes in your neighborhood that are fairly similar to yours.
You may love your home—and you should—but the buyer is comparing it with everything else available.
The sellers who understand that are still succeeding.
There Isn’t One “Phoenix Housing Market.”
This is something I wish more homeowners understood.
I personally subscribe to Cromford Associates, a proprietary Arizona real estate data service that closely tracks housing supply and demand throughout the Valley.
One of the measurements I follow is the Cromford Market Index. You don’t need to understand the formula. In simple terms, around 100 represents a relatively balanced market. Higher numbers generally mean sellers have more leverage; lower numbers mean buyers do.
And right now, our individual cities look very different.
Scottsdale remains strongly seller-favored and has actually strengthened recently.
Chandler continues to favor sellers, although it has cooled somewhat.
Gilbert is much closer to a balanced market.
Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, Buckeye and Maricopa currently give buyers considerably more leverage.
And even that is changing week to week. Queen Creek has actually improved slightly for sellers recently, while Maricopa, Surprise, Tempe, Phoenix and several other cities have been moving further toward buyers.
What does this mean for you?
When someone tells me:
"I heard the Phoenix housing market is down."
My first question is:
Which housing market?
Scottsdale?
Chandler?
Gilbert?
Queen Creek?
Maricopa?
Then we need to go even deeper.
Which neighborhood? Which price range? What condition? Single-level or two-story? Pool or no pool? Are there new homes being built nearby?
A Scottsdale seller and a Queen Creek seller should not necessarily use the same strategy.
Neither should their buyers.
Real estate has always been local. Right now, it’s extremely local.
And Don’t Forget: Arizona Real Estate Is Seasonal.
September is also a strange time to judge the Arizona housing market.
We’ve come out of our summer buying and selling season, but we haven't yet hit our winter stride when seasonal residents and visitors begin returning to Arizona.
We're in that in-between period.
That doesn't mean we dismiss slower sales or softer pricing. Those things are real.
But we also shouldn't look at a slower August or September and automatically assume the market is deteriorating.
In fact, that's why I find the recent increase in pending and under-contract homes interesting.
Buyers may already be starting to stir.
As we move further into fall and winter, seasonal demand can change the market again, particularly in communities and price ranges that attract retirees, second-home owners and winter residents.
What does this mean for you?
Timing matters.
A slow August doesn't necessarily tell us what January will look like.
For buyers, this in-between season can also create opportunities. Some sellers have already been through the slower summer months and may be more willing to negotiate before winter demand arrives.
New Construction Is Creating Its Own Market.
One area where I'm seeing sellers face a particular challenge is communities with a lot of new construction.
Imagine you purchased a brand-new home two or three years ago and something in your life changes.
Now you need to sell.
The problem is that the builder may still be building essentially the same home down the street.
Except the builder can offer a brand-new house, closing-cost incentives and sometimes an attractive mortgage-rate incentive.
That's difficult for an individual homeowner to compete against.
We're seeing some of that pressure in the numbers.
The median new-home price in Maricopa County was approximately $512,000 in August, down more than 4% from a year ago.
Meanwhile, the median resale price was approximately $450,000 and virtually unchanged from last year.
Those are two different stories happening in the same housing market.
What does this mean for you?
If you're selling in an area with substantial new construction, the builder is part of your competition.
We need to know what that builder is offering because your potential buyer certainly does.
And if you're buying, compare both.
Sometimes the builder has the better opportunity. Sometimes it's the motivated resale seller who has to compete against the builder.
Foreclosures Are Up. That Doesn't Mean It's 2009.
You may have seen headlines about increasing foreclosures and short sales.
Yes, we're seeing more distressed situations.
But an increase from extremely low levels needs context.
What I'm seeing more frequently isn't a repeat of the foreclosure crisis. It's an individual homeowner who purchased relatively recently and then had something unexpected happen.
Maybe it's a job change, relocation, divorce, family situation or financial change.
They need to move, but they haven't owned the home long enough to build much equity.
This can be especially difficult if they bought in an area where they're now competing with new construction.
That's very different from what happened during the housing crisis.
What does this mean for buyers?
There are motivated sellers in today's market.
But motivated doesn't necessarily mean desperate.
A deal in 2026 usually isn't buying a $600,000 house for $300,000.
It might mean getting the seller to pay $10,000 or $15,000 toward your closing costs or an interest-rate buy-down.
It could mean negotiating a better purchase price.
It might mean getting an expensive repair completed.
Those are real dollars.
Buyers Finally Have Something They Didn't Have in 2020 and 2021: Leverage.
Think back a few years.
Buyers were competing against multiple offers, paying over asking price and sometimes giving up important protections just to get a house.
Today, buyers have choices.
You can negotiate.
You can take a little more time.
You may be able to ask the seller for concessions.
Ironically, the market buyers were begging for a few years ago is here—and some buyers are now afraid to participate because it doesn't feel good.
Markets rarely feel comfortable when the best negotiating opportunities are available.
What does this mean for you?
If you can comfortably afford the payment and expect to live in the home for five, seven or ten-plus years, I think it's worth looking beyond today's headlines and asking a bigger question:
Does owning this home make sense for my life?
If the answer is no, don't buy it.
If you expect to move again in a year or two, renting may make more sense.
But don't make the entire decision based on whether mortgage rates might be half a point lower next year.
Speaking of Mortgage Rates…
Nobody is thrilled with mortgage rates right now.
Earlier this year, rates were around 6%. Recently, we've moved back around and above 7%, depending on the day, lender, loan program and borrower.
Inflation, oil prices, economic growth, employment, the bond market and global uncertainty all influence where mortgage rates go.
The Federal Reserve is also meeting this week, and as I write this, financial markets strongly expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point.
Here's something that's frequently misunderstood:
The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates.
A quarter-point Fed increase does not automatically mean your mortgage rate increases by a quarter point.
Financial markets are forward-looking. When investors expect the Fed to make a move, markets begin reacting before the announcement ever happens.
So some of the expected Fed increase may already be reflected in today's rates.
What happens afterward will depend not only on what the Fed does, but what it says about inflation, the economy and what it might do next.
What does this mean for you?
I would be very cautious about building your entire housing plan around the idea that mortgage rates are suddenly going to fall dramatically.
Could rates improve? Absolutely.
But based on what I'm following, I think any improvement is more likely to be gradual and uneven rather than one giant drop.
Interest rates are market-driven. Political leaders can influence economic policy and markets, but nobody can simply declare that 30-year mortgage rates are going back to 4%.
If rates eventually improve and refinancing makes financial sense, that's an option you can evaluate later.
But you still need to be comfortable with the home and payment you're agreeing to today.
Homeownership Is About More Than an Interest Rate.
Sometimes I think we've become so focused on whether a house is a good investment that we forget what a house actually is.
It's your home.
It provides stability. It's where you live your life.
And over long periods, real estate has also historically been an important way households build wealth.
There's another practical part of homeownership that doesn't get talked about enough.
Most people aren't fantastic at consistently saving money.
When you own a home and make your mortgage payment every month, part of that payment gradually reduces what you owe. Combined with potential long-term appreciation, that can act somewhat like a forced savings plan.
That doesn't mean everyone should own a home.
But if you're planning to stay somewhere for a long time, there is more to the decision than today's mortgage rate.
So… Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell?
I actually think that's the wrong question.
The better question is:
Is now a good time for YOU to buy or sell?
If you're a buyer with stable finances who plans to stay for years, today's market offers choices and negotiating opportunities that simply weren't available a few years ago.
If you're a seller who needs or wants to move, homes are absolutely still selling. But pricing, condition, presentation and strategy matter much more.
And if you're a homeowner who doesn't need to move and doesn't like today's market?
Don't participate.
There's nothing wrong with staying where you are.
I'm not in the business of beating someone up to buy or sell a house.
If moving makes sense, let's figure out the smartest way to do it.
If it doesn't, don't.
My September Takeaway
The Phoenix housing market isn't on fire.
It's also not falling apart.
Prices are relatively flat. Sales are slow. Buyers have more negotiating power. Some sellers are motivated. Properly positioned homes are still selling, and we're seeing some encouraging improvement in pending and under-contract activity as we head toward our winter season.
Most importantly, there isn't one Phoenix market.
Some cities and neighborhoods are performing considerably better than others. Some homes are attracting buyers almost immediately while others sit for months.
I also don't expect the next few years of real estate to be particularly exciting.
And that's okay.
Barring some major unexpected economic event, I think we could be looking at a relatively boring period of real estate—modest appreciation, some flat stretches, occasional stronger years and a market that gradually works through today's affordability challenges.
Historically, that's much closer to normal real estate.
The pandemic housing boom wasn't normal.
The 2008 housing crash wasn't normal either.
Most markets happen somewhere in between.
So my biggest advice this month is simple:
Don't make a housing decision based on the loudest headline, your neighbor's Zestimate, what your friend says is going to happen, or a promise that rates or prices are about to dramatically change.
Look at your finances.
Look at your timeline.
Look at your specific neighborhood.
Look at the actual opportunities available to you.
Then decide whether participating in today's market makes sense for you.
Because none of us can control the market.
The best we can do is understand the market we're actually in and make good decisions with what it's giving us.
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